Israeli air force pilots walk to their plane during the “Blue Flag”, an international aerial training exercise at the Ovda Air Force base, southern Israel on Oct. 24, 2021. Photo by Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90
As Israel continues to brace for anticipated retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran for some two weeks now, with the Lebanese terror group continuing to fire rockets into Israel, some voices increasingly demand that Israel stop waiting – and instead, strike first and hard.
On Tuesday, Hezbollah launched around 40 rockets at Israeli targets in several barrages, while Israel Defense Forces said it shot down two drones.
The IDF targeted and destroyed two rocket launchers being readied to fire at Israel, killing two operatives from Hezbollah’s Southern Front unit in a drone strike.
Hezbollah later confirmed their deaths, bringing its officially-declared death toll to 408 since it began the attacks on Israel early last October. The group claimed responsibility for six attacks against Israel on Tuesday.
Among Israel’s military and political leadership, opinions are split on how to proceed regarding the threat in Israel’s north.
While former War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz had pushed to resolve the issue before the start of the next school year, Education Minister Yoav Kisch recently announced that displaced residents of northern Israel wouldn’t be able to return to their homes in time for children to start the next school year.
Some in Israel now hope that a truce in the war in Gaza with the Hamas terrorist organization will enable a similar agreement in the north. Hezbollah has stated in the past that it would only stop its attacks if a ceasefire would be reached in Gaza.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have both reiterated Israel’s readiness to respond to any attack but also said they would prefer a peaceful resolution.
The Wall Street Journal, however, reported on Wednesday that the IDF’s Northern Command, responsible for defending Israel on the Lebanese and Syrian borders, has been pushing the political echelon toward a more aggressive posture.
A senior security official told the WSJ that if Hezbollah’s retaliation for the killing of its commander Fuad Shukr exceeds the scale of its previous attacks, it could “lead to an Israeli attack that will lead to a new reality on the northern border.”
“There is a huge difference who attacks first,” said Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the IDF’s Gaza Division, who now leads the hawkish think tank, Israel Security and Defense Forum (ISDF).
A preemptive Israeli attack could destroy up to to 85% of Hezbollah’s military capabilities, but he also cautioned: “If [Hezbollah] attacks first, then it can be devastating,” Avivi said.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to push for a diplomatic solution, with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein set to visit Lebanon this week. However, his main negotiating partner in Lebanon, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, lowered expectations for the visit.
“It would have been better if he had come after Thursday, so that we could see what the results of the round of negotiations regarding Gaza are,” said Berri, reiterating the connection established by Hezbollah between a truce in Gaza and a ceasefire in Israel’s north.
Amos Yadlin, a former head of the IDF’s Intelligence Branch, told the WSJ that a diplomatic deal is less likely. In his view, Israel should wait for Hezbollah to attack in order to use this legitimacy to start a swift but intense campaign that would cripple the terror group.
“Enough is enough,” said Yadlin. “Since Hamas is basically destroyed, it is time to move to the north.”
