Iran’s Bavar 373 missile system (Photo: Official website of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran)
In recent days, Israel has been preparing for potential retaliatory attacks by the Iranian regime and its Lebanese terror proxy Hezbollah in response to the killings of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel and its allies are accessing the timing and scope of the expected attack.
A member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, warned that an attack on Israel from Iran could “be carried out by surprise and may even last three to four days,” Ardestani told Iran Watch. The Iranian lawmaker added that Tehran “is certainly prepared for the consequences of such an attack and will be ready for any subsequent developments.”
U.S. and Israeli senior officials previously believed that an Iranian attack was imminent and expected it to take place several days ago. However, Ardestani suggested that it benefits Iran to keep Israelis in a state of uncertainty and that Israel “feels every night that it is in limbo, and keeping Israel in limbo is part of the revenge operation.”
“Adopting a policy of patience and waiting is part of the revenge process of the Islamic Republic,” he added.
In addition, the Iranian regime tends to make long-term strategic choices, such as gradually advancing its nuclear weapons capabilities.
David Menashri, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv University, also believes that psychological warfare is an important component in Iran’s strategy against Israel and other adversaries.
“Israel is not that good at the game of patience like Iran, so it will be interesting to see if it will act first. Iran is currently winning the psychological warfare,” Menashri told The Media Line.
However, it is currently unclear whether the delayed Iranian attack is part of Tehran’s strategy or a result of intense pressure from the United States and other international players to reconsider its planned attack on Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently noted that Hezbollah forces might attack Israel before its Iranian patron.
Ardestani claimed that only a ceasefire between the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza and Israel could prevent an attack from Iran. However, he believes “it is unlikely that the two sides will reach such an agreement in the future, and for this reason, the Islamic Republic will not let go of the bloodshed of Martyr Haniyeh.”
In April, Israel and an American-led international alliance neutralized 99% of the more than 300 missiles and drones Iran launched toward Israel.
The Iranian lawmaker claimed the next Iranian attack would likely be larger.
“In the previous phase, about 300 drones and missiles were fired at the occupied territories, and this time, the number of projectiles may increase to, for example, about 600 war projectiles,” he said. “This time, like the previous time, the resistance groups of the region will accompany the Islamic Republic in providing its response.”
Ardestani emphasized that “this time we will not inform the enemy,” referencing the April attack when Iran previously disclosed its plans to strike Israel in advance.
