- USD/CHF stands tall near its highest level in over a month, albeit lacks bullish conviction.
- The SNB’s position as a frontrunner in the global policy easing cycle undermines the CHF.
- Traders await the release of US economic data and FOMC minutes later this Wednesday.
The USD/CHF pair trades with a mild positive bias for the seventh successive day on Wednesday and is currently placed just below its highest level in over a month touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, remain below mid-0.9000s as investors await more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets.
Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, due later during the US session. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI. The attention will then shift to the closely-watched US monthly jobs data, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CHF pair.
In the meantime, the markets have been pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will begin its monetary policy easing cycle in September. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish-sounding remarks on Tuesday, saying that the US economy has made significant progress on inflation and is back on the disinflationary path. This fails to assist the USD to attract any meaningful buyers. That said, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interest rate cut for the second consecutive meeting in June continues to undermine the Swiss Franc (CHF) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the 0.9000 psychological mark. Bulls, however, need to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the recent upward trajectory from the 0.8825 region, or a three-month low touched on June 18.
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: –
Previous: –
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
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