The 2025 Mexico Open isn’t star-less by any means, but it’s not far off.
There’s no Scottie Scheffler, no Justin Thomas, no Ludvig Aberg. There’s not even a Rickie Fowler in this field. You know what that means? There is no shortage of opportunities, either.
As bettors prepare to wager on a field consisting of just four Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, it’s time to embrace uncertainty. The Mexico Open has never been one of the most well-attended events by the game’s biggest names.
That’s our advantage as we try to win some bets this week.
Let’s dig in.
Who’s winning the Mexico Open?
Apr 6, 2024; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Akshay Bhatia hits a tee shot on the 17th hole during the third round of the Valero Texas Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Akshay Bhatia (+1400) 2 Units
We’ve long been fans of Bhatia at For The Win, which is why it’s pretty cool to see his name atop the board this week as the odds on favorite. Still, 14-1 is pretty decent odds for a budding star who appears to be making the leap this year. The 23-year-old has made the cut in all four events he’s started this season, finishing no worse than T32 (including a T9 at the Genesis last week). We’ll throw a few units here out of respect (and an impressive +2.78 True Strokes Gained at VidantaWorld).
Aaron Rai (+2800) 1 Unit
Rai’s recent history at the Mexico Open isn’t spectacular, though it does feature two top 25s. Yet his current form heading into this one is hard to overlook. Per The PGA, Rai is the best course fit in the field, ranking top 10 in four of five key metrics at VidantaWorld.
Who’s finishing Top 10?
May 19, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Kurt Kitayama walks to the second tee during the final round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Valhalla Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
Kurt Kitayama (+220) 3 Units
These odds aren’t the most exciting, but you can’t argue with Kitayama’s results at the Mexico Open. He finished T2 at VidantaWorld in 2022 with +2.66 True Strokes Gained, per DataGolf.
Carson Young (+550) 2 Units
Much like Kitayama, Young has a strong recent history here with a T15 in 2024, T8 in 2024 and +1.38 True Stokes Gained over eight rounds. He’s also considered the fourth-best course fit in the field. We’ll bite.
One And Done: Patrick Rodgers
Apr 21, 2024; Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA; Patrick Rodgers chips onto the ninth green during the final round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not in love with this pick — as it’s already proving pretty popular — but I’m afraid I have no choice. After a massive whiff on Sungjae Im at the Genesis last week, we need to get some money back and Rodgers gives us as close to a guarantee as you can ask for here. finishing Top 10 in each of his three starts. It doesn’t hurt Rodgers is coming off a T3 at the Genesis, either.
Who is missing the cut?
May 3, 2024; McKinney, Texas, USA; Alex Smalley watches his shot from the sixth tee during the second round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Alex Smalley (+210) 1 Unit
After a T6 at the Mexico Open in 2022, Smalley has missed the cuts in back-to-back starts. That would be bad enough if he also just hadn’t missed the cut in a weaker field at the Farmers Insurance in late January. We’ll pass here.
Michael Kim (+230) 1 Unit
It’s been a weird start to the year for Kim. He missed the cut at the Sony Open and Farmers Insurance, then finished T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and T13 at the Genesis. Way too much volatility for someone who missed the cut at last year’s Mexico Open.
Gambling involves risk. Please only gamble with funds that you can comfortably afford to lose. While we do our utmost to offer good advice and information we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of gambling. We do our best to make sure all the information that we provide on this site is correct. However, from time to time mistakes will be made and we will not be held liable. Please check any stats or information if you are unsure how accurate they are. No guarantees are made with regards to results or financial gain. All forms of betting carry financial risk and it is up to the individual to make bets with or without the assistance of information provided on this site and we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of following the betting tips provided on this site. Past performances do not guarantee success in the future and betting odds fluctuate from one minute to the next. The material contained on this site is intended to inform, entertain and educate the reader and in no way represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally or any sort of professional advice.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside. It is your sole responsibility to act in accordance with your local laws.
